SNL Kagan: Broadcast Revenue to Decline in 2009
Mar 30, 2009 9:45 AM
Monterey, CA - Mar 30, 2009 - SNL Kagan's updated Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook, radio and TV revenues will continue to fall in 2009 but are expected to regain some ground over the long term. In 2008, the broadcast sector suffered deep declines as the recession intensified, with radio revenues down 10 percent to $17.7 billion and local and national spot TV ad revenues dropping 6.9 percent to $20.1 billion. SNL Kagan estimates 2009 revenues will slide even further, with declines of at least 15 percent for radio and 15.7 percent for TV stations anticipated.
SNL Kagan forecasts a turnaround in 2010, with modest growth through 2013 offsetting some of the declines of 2008-2009. In the five-year outlook, SNL Kagan expects radio revenues to decline by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9 percent and TV revenues to drop 2 percent.
Some details from the report:
Markets in Michigan are projected to grow the slowest, with mass automotive industry layoffs placing the future of the big three automakers in jeopardy. The Detroit market is expected to decline 16.3 percent for radio and 17.7 percent for TV in 2009, with a five-year CAGR of -2.9 percent and -4.4 percent respectively.
At the other end of the spectrum, Washington, DC, tops the list of markets showing the least attrition with a five-year CAGR of -0.4 percent for radio and -0.2 percent for TV, due to an increase in Federal government spending and the migration of laid-off banking professionals to jobs in the public sector. San Diego is a close second, with a CAGR of -0.4 percent for radio and -0.5 percent for TV.
The report says that mid and smaller markets will hold up better....